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Sunday, August 3, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis August 4-8, 2014

FOR 8/4 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1963.85, R2 1950.60, R1 1942.87
Pivot Point 1929.62
Support  S1 1921.89 , S2 1908.44, S3 1900.91

For Weekly 8/4-8/8 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 2043.02, R2 2013.93, R1 1974.54
Pivot Point 1945.45
Support S1 1906.06, S2 1876.97, S3 1837.58

The recently awaited downtrend kicked in this week after the SPX made a fifth wave failure at 1985 on Tuesday. After that the rest of the week was downhill with the SPX hitting 1916 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were -2.75%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.20%, and the DJ World index was -2.35%. Economic reports were also biased to the negative. On the uptick: Consumer confidence/sentiment, Q2 GDP, personal income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing and auto sales. On the downtick: construction spending, the WLEI, pending home sales, Case-Shiller index, ADP, the Chicago PMI, monthly Payrolls, and both the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims were higher. Next week, economically a much quieter one, we get reports on ISM services, Consumer credit and Wholesale inventories.

Short term support is at SPX 1916 and the 1901 pivot, with resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal level now SPX 1935.

We are counting the uptrend as having topped with a fifth wave failure at SPX 1985. Just below the actual SPX 1991 top. We have counted a three wave decline to SPX 1962 (1970-1979-1962) and labeled that A. Then a B wave rally to SPX 1976. This was followed by a three wave decline to SPX 1916 (1925-1937-1916). At SPX 1916 this second three wave decline was exactly a Fibonacci 2.618 times the first. Also at SPX 1916, as we noted on Friday, it was the June print low and it displayed a double bottom in ES right at the S1 support pivot. After the market hit that level it had its best rally since the decline from SPX 1985 began.

The last two downtrends spent a few days retesting the low before the next uptrend finally took off. Review the daily chart above. With this in mind we feel either the low is in for Intermediate wave iv, or possibly a push down to the 1901 pivot range should end it. A rally into the 1956 pivot range would currently suggest SPX 1916 was the downtrend low.

Support for the SPX remains at 1916, 1900, 1890 and then 1870 resistance at 1929 and then 1956.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead. Best to your trading!


The Asian markets were mixed for a net gain of 0.4%.
The European markets were all lower for a net loss of 3.2%.
The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net loss of 1.2%.
The DJ World index may have ended its Primary III and lost 2.35%.


Bonds continue to uptrend but finished about flat on the week.
Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 3.9% on the week.
Gold is close to confirming a downtrend and lost 1.1% on the week.
The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.


Earning Calendar August 4-8, 2014

Tuesday: Factory orders and ISM services. Wednesday: the Trade deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday: Wholesale inventories. Nothing scheduled with the FED. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min

$SPX with component chart 
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 

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