FOR 8/4 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1963.85, R2 1950.60, R1 1942.87
Pivot Point 1929.62
Support S1 1921.89 , S2 1908.44, S3 1900.91
For Weekly 8/4-8/8 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 2043.02, R2 2013.93, R1 1974.54
Pivot Point 1945.45
Support S1 1906.06, S2 1876.97, S3 1837.58
The recently awaited downtrend kicked in this week after the
SPX made a fifth wave failure at 1985 on Tuesday. After that the rest of the
week was downhill with the SPX hitting 1916 on Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW
were -2.75%, the NDX/NAZ were -2.20%, and the DJ World index was -2.35%.
Economic reports were also biased to the negative. On the uptick: Consumer
confidence/sentiment, Q2 GDP, personal
income/spending, PCE prices, ISM manufacturing and auto sales. On the downtick:
construction spending, the WLEI, pending home sales, Case-Shiller index, ADP,
the Chicago PMI, monthly Payrolls, and both
the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims were higher. Next week,
economically a much quieter one, we get reports on ISM services, Consumer
credit and Wholesale inventories.
Short term support is at SPX 1916 and the 1901 pivot, with
resistance at the 1929 and 1956 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week just
below neutral. The short term OEW charts remain negative with the reversal
level now SPX 1935.
We are counting the uptrend as having topped with a fifth
wave failure at SPX 1985. Just below the actual SPX 1991 top. We have counted a
three wave decline to SPX 1962 (1970-1979-1962) and labeled that A. Then a B
wave rally to SPX 1976. This was followed by a three wave decline to SPX 1916
(1925-1937-1916). At SPX 1916 this second three wave decline was exactly a
Fibonacci 2.618 times the first. Also at SPX 1916, as we noted on Friday, it
was the June print low and it displayed a double bottom in ES right at the S1
support pivot. After the market hit that level it had its best rally since the
decline from SPX 1985 began.
The last two downtrends spent a few days retesting the low
before the next uptrend finally took off. Review the daily chart above. With
this in mind we feel either the low is in for Intermediate wave iv, or possibly
a push down to the 1901 pivot range should end it. A rally into the 1956 pivot
range would currently suggest SPX 1916 was the downtrend low.
Support for the SPX remains at 1916, 1900, 1890 and then 1870
resistance at 1929 and then 1956.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild
week ahead. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were mixed for a net gain of 0.4%.
The European markets were all lower for a net loss of 3.2%.
The Commodity equity group were mixed for a net loss of
1.2%.
The DJ World index may have ended its Primary III
and lost 2.35%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to uptrend but finished about flat on the
week.
Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 3.9% on the week.
Gold is close to confirming a downtrend and lost 1.1% on the
week.
The USD remains in an uptrend and gained 0.4% on the week.
NEXT WEEK
Earning Calendar August 4-8, 2014
Tuesday: Factory orders and ISM services. Wednesday: the
Trade deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Consumer credit. Friday:
Wholesale inventories. Nothing scheduled with the FED.
Best to your weekend and week!
Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 minSPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
$SPX with component chart
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily
COMPAQ
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