The ELLIOTT WAVE lives on
- Anthony Caldaro said
The market started the week at SPX 2092. After a gap down
opening on Monday the market quickly recovered to hit SPX 2103. It traded at
that level again on Tuesday, and then ran into three straight gap down openings
for the rest of the week. On Friday the SPX hit 1971 and closed there. For the
week the SPX/DOW were -5.8%, the NDX/NAZ
were -7.1%, and the DJ World index was -5.3%. On the economic front reports
came in slightly to the positive. On the uptick: the NAHB, the CPI,
housing starts, existing home sales, the Philly FED
and the GDPN. On the downtick: the NY FED,
building permits, leading indicators, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims
rose. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the next report on Q2 GDP,
Durable goods, and PCE prices.
With Thursday’s/Friday’s market activity, we not only
updated the hourly chart to match the daily chart. But also shifted the first
significant wave of the downtrend over to the SPX 2052 level. This would put it
more in proportion with the recent selloff. At Friday’s SPX 1971 low Minor C is
within one point of a 1.618 relationship (1972) to Minor A. Should the 1973
pivot range hold the market could experience a good rally next week. If not,
the 1956, 1929 and even 1901 pivots would be next.
After four years of a rising market, and the loss of the six
month support at SPX 2040, it appears many are hedging or simply taking
profits. Short term support is at the 1956 and 1929 pivots, with resistance at
the 1973 and 2019 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely
oversold. Best to your weekend and week!
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets were all lower for a loss of 5.6%.
The European markets were all lower as well for a loss of
6.3%.
The Commodity equity group also all lower losing 6.0%.
The DJ World index lost 5.3%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 1.1%.
Crude remains in a downtrend and lost 4.1%.
Gold has nearly confirmed an uptrend and gained 4.2%.
The USD confirmed a downtrend and lost 1.6%.
NEXT WEEK
Tuesday: Case-Shiller, FHFA housing, New home sales and
Consumer confidence. Wednesday: Durable goods orders. Thursday: Q2 GDP
(est. +3.1%), weekly Jobless claims and Pending home sales. Friday: Personal
income/spending, PCE prices, and Consumer sentiment. Saturday: a Jackson
Hole speech by FED vice chair
Fischer.
