SPX Technical Analysis February 10-14, 2014

FOR 2/10 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1826.71, R2 1812.37, R1 1804.69
Pivot Point 1790.35
Support  S1 1782.67,  S2 1768.33, S3 1760.65

For Weekly 2/10-2/14 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1877.50, R2 1837.76, R1 1817.39
Pivot Point 1777.65
Support S1 1757.28, S2 1717.54, S3 1697.17

The USA stock market was another volatile down week. Then ended with a strong rally to the upside. After closing last week at SPX 1783, the market dropped to 1738 by Wednesday morning. Next it rallied, over the next two days, to end the week at SPX 1797. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.7%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.8%, and the DJ World index gained 0.7%. Economic reports for the week were slightly to the downside: 7 to 6. On the uptick: construction spending, ISM services, monthly payrolls, consumer credit, plus both the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: ISM manufacturing, monthly auto sales, factory orders, the ADP index, the WLEI, the monetary base, and the trade deficit worsened. Next week we get a look at Industrial production and Retail sales.

Short term support is at the 1779 pivot and SPX 1768, with resistance at SPX 1800 and SPX 1814. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level SPX 1774. For now, we are using the SPX 1814 resistance level, which is above the 1808 61.8% retracement, to signal if a new uptrend may be underway. This has two possibilities as well. We are being objective: project, monitor and adjust when necessary.

Should SPX 1814 be exceeded, and a new uptrend may be underway. For the SPX count this would suggest Major wave A has ended, Major wave B is underway, and the labeling would have to be upgraded one level. For the DOW count this would suggest Intermediate wave two has ended, Intermediate three is underway, and not only would the labeling have to be upgraded one level, but the market is heading to new highs. In effect, we are now dealing with three variables heading into next week. If it all sound quite confusing just remember, regardless of the outcome, we are still in a bull market. For now we are leaving the labeling as it pending further market data, especially SPX 1814.

Support for the SPX remains at 1780, 1767, 1760 and then 1750, resistance at 1800 and then 1814.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a net loss of 0.6%.

The European markets were nearly all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.6%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week for a net gain of 1.5%.

The DJ World index gained 0.7% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in an uptrend and gained 0.1% on the week.

Crude confirmed an uptrend and gained 2.8% on the week.

Gold is in a choppy uptrend and gained 1.8% on the week.

The USD is close to confirming a downtrend and lost 0.8% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calender Feb 10-14, 2014 

 

Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: Treasury budget. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales and Business inventories. Friday: Export/Import prices, Industrial production and Consumer sentiment. As for the new FED. Tuesday: FED chair Yellen gives Congressional testimony on the Semiannual Monetary policy report. Thursday: Fed chair Yellen gives similar testimony to the Senate. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts

$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPQ

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