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Monday, January 16, 2012

World Market Fall, Hurt by EU Downgrades - 1/16/12

Standard & Poor's credit rating downgrades of nine euro zone countries will fuel attempts by European Union lawmakers to slap stricter curbs on sovereign ratings.
 

The bloc's financial services chief Michel Barnier proposed in November a third set of rules for rating agencies in as many years. But faced with opposition from some of his fellow commissioners, Barnier dropped one proposed element: publication blackouts on ratings downgrades.

As with EU shares, yields on 10-year EU government bonds aren't reacting too drastically to S&P's ratings action. France +3 bps, Spain +4 bps, Italy +4 bps, Austria flat, Belgium +4 bps, Germany flat

EU shares are mostly flat-to-higher in early trading despite S&P's mass downgrade on Friday, as the action on France was well baked in. Euro STOXX 50 flat. London +0.2%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt +0.1%. Madrid -0.4%. Euro -0.15% at $1.2673.

Irish stockbroker Davy sharply cuts its 2012 GDP growth estimate for the country to 0.4% from 1.7%, citing the deteriorating outlook for the rest of the EU region. "(The) benign environment underpinning fiscal plans is unravelling," says the firm, expecting the government will not hit its deficit targets in 2012 or 2013. The meme of the "success" of the Irish bailout may get tested in 2012.
 
Chinese stocks fell for a fourth straight session and other Asian markets generally declined, as a string of euro-zone downgrade and stalled debt talks in Greece thrust Europe's crisis back into the spotlight.

Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell 1.4% to 8378.36, Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index dropped 1.2% to 4147.2 and South Korea's Kospi declined 0.9% to 1859.27.

China's Shanghai Composite shed 1.7% to 2206.19, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 1% to 19012.20 and Taiwan's Taiex shed 1.1% to 7103.62, with President Ma Ying-jeou's election victory unable to dent the Europe-inspired gloom.

In India, the Sensex edged up 0.2% to 16189.36.

U.S. markets were closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.
 
Analysts said China's shares will likely stay soft ahead of the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday that begins on Jan. 22, given concerns about China's economic slowdown and disappointment that China hasn't cut its reserve requirement for banks, which had been expected. The government reports fourth-quarter growth on Tuesday, and a poll of 12 economists by Dow Jones Newswires expects gross domestic product likely rose 8.6% in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, down from a 9.1% growth in the third quarter.

On Friday, Standard & Poor's cut the credit ratings of France and Austria, which had been triple-A, by one notch, in addition to lowering the less-lofty ratings of Malta, Slovenia and Slovakia by one notch and those of Portugal, Cyprus, Italy and Spain by two notches.

Asian stocks fall the most in a month after S&P's nine eurozone downgrades. Japan -1.4%. Hong Kong -1.0%. China -1.7%. India -0.3%

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