Stock Alerts -Gold spikes higher - 11/12/15

Gold spikes higher

Down nearly 1% on the session just minutes ago, gold has recouped all of the days losses and more in the space of a few bars, now up 0.1% to $1,086 per ounce. GLD +0.15%

The move comes amid sloppy action in stocks - with futures moving from near flat to about half a percent lower just ahead of the open. In early action, the S&P 500 is down by 0.5%, the Nasdaq by 0.6%, and DJIA by 0.8%.

Earlier, Mario Draghi promised more QE, if needed, and the Fed's Jim Bullard promised a rate hike. In her opening remarks at a conference, Janet Yellen doesn't touch on the subject.

ETFs: GLD, IAU, PHYS, SGOL, UGL, DGP, GTU, GLL, UGLD, DZZ, GLDI, OUNZ, DGL, DGZ, DGLD, AGOL, GEUR, UBG, GYEN, QGLDX

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Stock Alerts -Oil slumps as Goldman says price could drop to $20- 9/11/15

Oil slumps as Goldman says price could drop to $20

Crude oil is -2.2% at $44.92 despite the IEA predicting the "largest cut in non-OPEC supply in more than two decades" due to low oil prices and as Goldman warns that crude could collapse to $20 a barrel.

"The oil market is even more oversupplied than we had expected and we now forecast this surplus to persist in 2016,” Goldman explained, although it also said that $20 isn't its base case scenario.

Still, it's a nice figure that generate lots of tweets, as are the forecasts by Goldman and others in the not so distant past that oil would hit $150-$200 a barrel.

In its September Oil Market Report, the IEA forecast that non-OPEC supply will drop nearly 0.5M bpd to 57.7M bpd in 2016, "the biggest decline in more than two decades." U.S. light tight oil, the driver of US growth, is seen down 400,000 bpd.

OPEC supply dropped 220 000 bpd in August to 31.57 bpd, although that's still 1.2M bpd higher than last year.

The IEA predicts that global oil demand will climb to a five-year high of 1.7M bpd this year before easing to 1.4M bpd in 2016.

OECD oil inventories rose another 18M barrels in July to a record 2.9B barrels.

ETFs: USO, OIL, UCO, UWTI, SCO, BNO, DBO, DWTI, DTO, USL, DNO, UHN, OLO, SZO, OLEM

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Stock Alerts -Financials join energy as hardest hit sector today- 9/2/15

Financials join energy as hardest hit sector today

The dream of higher interest rates is looking a little fuzzier at the moment, as China leads markets lower again, and the Fed's Eric Rosengren suggests the conditions for a rate hike have still yet to be met. If Friday's payroll number disappoints - and there's at least some reason to expect that - a Sept. move looks off the table.

The Financial SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLE) is down 3% vs. the S&P 500's 2.3%.

Life insurers: MetLife (MET -3.7%), Prudential (PRU -3.9%), Lincoln National (LNC -4.2%)

Money-center banks: Citigroup (C -4.4%), JPMorgan (JPM -3.6%), Wells Fargo (WFC -3.8%)

Regional banks: U.S. Bancorp (USB -4.3%), Regions Financial (RF -4.1%), KeyCorp (KEY -4.3%), SunTrust (STI -4.2%), M&T Bank (MTB -4.2%)

Online brokerage: E*Trade (ETFC -4.8%), Schwab (SCHW -3.8%), Ameritrade (AMTD -3.4%)

ETFs: XLF, FAS, FAZ, UYG, KRE, VFH, KBE, IYF, BTO, IAT, SEF, IYG, FXO, FNCL, KBWB, QABA, FINU, KBWR, KRU, RWW, RYF, FINZ, KRS

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Stock Alerts -Barclays' top energy/utilities picks: CAM, VLO, SU, VET, NEE- 6/30/15

Barclays' top energy/utilities picks: CAM, VLO, SU, VET, NEE

• Cameron (NYSE:CAM) stands out as Barclays' Top Pick in the energy sector, as the firm highlights "resilient results expected from improved execution and manufacturing flexibility, while also being well positioned for the eventual recoveries in each of its end markets."
• Valero Energy (NYSE:VLO) remains Barclays' favorite name among refiners, due mostly to the new management’s emphasis on growing value for shareholders; Suncor (NYSE:SU) and Vermilion Energy (NYSE:VET) also rank among the firm's favorites.
• Among regulated utilities, NextEra Energy (NYSE:NEE) is one of the highest quality names, with 5%-7% targeted earnings growth generated from continued investment in its Florida Power & Light regulated entity.
• In precious metals, Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) is Top Pick; Barclays prefers gold royalty companies over gold producers as they have wider margins and limited exposure to rising operating and capital costs while their diversified portfolios limit political risk, and RGLD is the best of the group.

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Stock Alerts -Broadcom (BRCM -0.1%) forms Chinese alliances; Avago seen eying more deals- 6/26/15

Broadcom forms Chinese alliances; Avago seen eying more deals

• Broadcom (BRCM -0.1%) is partnering with Chinese networking hardware leader H3C (until recently an HP subsidiary) to "explore new market requirements and technical trends to optimize the interaction and performance of current and future platforms and architectures." H3C uses Broadcom's Ethernet ICs in its hardware.
• The company is also partnering with Chinese systems integrator Inspur on 4K/DOCSIS 3.0 set-top solutions relying on Broadcom's chips, and with Beijing-based pay-TV provider StarTimes to "jointly define and develop set-top box offerings in Africa," and "invest engineering resources to develop a series of low-cost set-top boxes and high-end Ultra HD home gateways."
• Broadcom has been taking set-top IC share from STMicroelectronics. On its Q1 CC (transcript), the company stated its set-top/broadband modem chip sales grew at a double-digit Y/Y clip.
• Meanwhile, speculation continues to swirl that Avago (AVGO +0.3%), which is set to merge with Broadcom in a ~$37B cash/stock deal (follows deals for LSI, PLX, and Emulex), is up for further M&A. FBR's Chris Rolland: "They are looking for higher quality, accretive ideas that typically diversify their business. The target list is many."
• With all 4 of Avago's recent deals having a major data center component, Gartner's Sergis Mushell thinks the company could look to fill remaining holes in its data center line, such as power management and timing ICs. IDC believes analog/mixed-signal chipmakers with high gross margins could be in play - Texas Instruments appears to be looking in that direction.
• Prior Broadcom/Avago coverage

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Stock Alerts -Amazon's (AMZN +0.2%) launches $100M voice tech fund, opens up Alexa- 6/26/15

Amazon launches $100M voice tech fund, opens up Alexa

• Amazon's (AMZN +0.2%) Alexa Fund will invest up to $100M in "developers, manufacturers, and start-ups of all sizes who are passionate about creating new experiences designed around the human voice."
• Investment decisions will be based on "the potential for unique or novel applications of voice technology that leverage the Alexa Skills Kit (ASK) or the Alexa Voice Service (AVS)," both of which were announced today and aim to create an ecosystem around Amazon's Alexa voice assistant. To date, Alexa has been built into Amazon's Echo Web-connected speaker/assistant (just became generally available for $180).
• ASK provides developers APIs to create Alexa-powered apps with custom "skills." One of Amazon's examples: "A fitness service can enable Alexa to access a user’s workout history, so a customer can say 'Alexa, ask My Fitness how many miles I have run this week.'"
• AVS provides hardware makers and their developer partners with tools for creating Alexa-powered devices and related apps. One of Amazon's examples: "A home sound system that lets customers turn on music just by saying 'Play my barbeque playlist on the back deck.'"
• Google (Now), Apple (Siri), Microsoft (Cortana), and Nuance (Dragon PC, mobile, and auto assistants) are among the other firms investing heavily voice assistant platforms, with varying levels of API support. Nuance (NUAN -0.8%) is believed to be powering Amazon's Fire TV and Phone's voice search features; no word yet on its role with Alexa.
• Earlier: Evercore downgrades Amazon, cites valuation and growing capex

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Stock Alerts -Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO) -5.6%; Apple Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) plans to support ad-blockers on Mobile Safari- 6/11/15

Criteo -5.6%; Apple plans to support ad-blockers on Mobile Safari

• "The new Safari release brings Content Blocking Safari Extensions to iOS. Content Blocking gives your extensions a fast and efficient way to block cookies, images, resources, pop-ups, and other content," writes Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) in its developer documentation for iOS 9 (launching this fall).
• StatCounter estimates Safari had a 24.9% global mobile/tablet browsing share in May, trailing only Google Chrome's 30.8% ... and Safari's share of the high-income consumers beloved by advertisers is likely larger, given Apple's customer demographics.
• Content publishers aren't thrilled with Apple's plans to support 3rd-party ad-blockers. NiemanLab's Joshua Benton: "Publishers already make tiny dollars on mobile, even as their readers have shifted there in huge numbers ... If iOS users — the majority of mobile web users in the U.S., and disproportionately appealing demographically — can suddenly block all your ads with a simple free download, where is the growth going to come from?"
• Benton also notes Apple's support for cookie-blocking could prevent content paywalls from working. At the same time, he admits "bandwidth and performance and battery life are all at a premium" on mobile, and that many ads act as a big resource drain.
• Criteo (NASDAQ:CRTO), whose e-commerce ad platform relies on cookies to deliver retargeted ads to users on PC and mobile sites, is selling off (hat tip: Marc Lehman). Other ad tech plays don't appear to be affected much by the news for now. Apple's move follows remarks by Tim Cook arguing Apple places a greater value on consumer privacy and data protection than Google and other rivals. Android already supports ad-blockers.

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Stock Alerts -(CIEN +1.4%) higher after FQ2 beat; guidance in-line- 6/4/15

Ciena higher after FQ2 beat; guidance in-line

• Though the Nasdaq is down 1%, Ciena (CIEN +1.4%) remains higher after beating FQ2 estimates on the back of strong packet-optical (integrated Ethernet/optical networking) hardware sales. FQ3 revenue guidance is at $610M-$640M, in-line with a $632.2M consensus.
• Financials: Boosting FQ2 EPS: Gross margin was 44.4%, +30 bps Q/Q and +130 bps Y/Y, and above guidance of 42%-43%; FQ3 GM guidance is at 43%. Also helping: Operating expenses (non-GAAP) only rose by $1.6M Y/Y (less than 1%) to $207.9M. On a GAAP basis, R&D spend totaled $105.2M, sales/marketing $82.5M, and G&A $30.3M. Adjusted op. margin rose to 10.9% from 6.8% in FQ1 and 6.2% a year ago.
• Business performance: Converged packet optical revenue (69.6% of total) +21% Y/Y to $432.9M. Packet networking (Ethernet switches) -20% to $53.3M. Optical transport -44% to $16.5M. Software/services +11% to $118.9M.
• Georgaphic/customer performance: North America was 63.9% of revenue (U.S. was 59.1%), EMEA 16.4%, Asia-Pac 12%, and Caribbean/Latin America 7.7%. AT&T accounted for 19% of sales, and was the sole 10%+ customer. UBS likes the fact North American sales rose 20% Q/Q in spite of AT&T revenue (recently under pressure) remaining roughly flat.
• Shares made a new 52-week high of $25.49 this morning before pulling back a bit.
• FQ2 results, PR

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Top Analyst Upgrades & Downgrades: SHLM, ABT, ALB, AON, AJG, ASH, BKD, BRO, CP, COF, CIO, CDE, CYT, FANG, FMC, HME, MMC, MAA, MNTA, PMCS, PE, PVA, PRGO, POL, PX, KWR, SCL, WPX, WSH, WWW -6/4/15

Today's noteworthy initiations include: A. Schulman (SHLM) initiated with an Accumulate at Global Hunter... Abbott (ABT) initiated with a Buy at BTIG... Albemarle (ALB) initiated with an Accumulate at Global Hunter... Aon plc (AON) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray... Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray... Ashland (ASH) initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter... Brookdale Senior Living (BKD) initiated with a Buy at Goldman... Brown & Brown (BRO) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray... Canadian Pacific (CP) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein... Capital One (COF) initiated with an Outperform at CLSA... City Office REIT (CIO) initiated with a Buy at Janney Capital... Coeur Mining (CDE) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital... Cytec Industries (CYT) initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter... Diamondback Energy (FANG) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer... FMC Corporation (FMC) initiated with an Accumulate at Global Hunter... Home Properties (HME) initiated with a Market Perform at Cowen... Marsh & McLennan (MMC) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray... Mid-America Apartment (MAA) initiated with an Outperform at Cowen... Momenta (MNTA) initiated with a Buy at Stifel... PMC-Sierra (PMCS) initiated with a Buy at Craig-Hallum... Parsley Energy (PE) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer... Penn Virginia (PVA) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer... Perrigo (PRGO) initiated with a Buy at BTIG... PolyOne (POL) initiated with a Buy at Global Hunter... Praxair (PX) initiated with a Neutral at Global Hunter... Quaker Chemical (KWR) initiated with a Neutral at Global Hunter... Stepan Company (SCL) initiated with an Accumulate at Global Hunter... WPX Energy (WPX) initiated with a Perform at Oppenheimer... Willis Group (WSH) initiated with a Neutral at Piper Jaffray... Wolverine World Wide (WWW) initiated with a Neutral at B. Riley.

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Stock Alerts -New Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) CEO Robbins names CTO, sales chief, rest of leadership team- 6/4/15

New Cisco CEO Robbins names CTO, sales chief, rest of leadership team

• Hilton Romanski, formerly Cisco's (NASDAQ:CSCO) head of M&A strategy, is the company's new CTO/chief strategy officer. He replaces Padmasree Warrior, who was recently reported to be departing. (Press Release)
• Officially, Warrior will transitioning to a "strategic advisor" role, as will services SVP Edzard Overbeek. Replacing Overbeek is Joe Cozzolino, formerly the head of Cisco's service provider mobility and video infrastructure ops.
• EMEA/Russia sales chief Chris Dedicoat has been named Cisco's SVP of worldwide sales, and go-to-market chief Karen Walker is now chief marketing officer.
• CIO Rebecca Jacoby has been named Cisco's SVP of operations. She'll "oversee the global supply chain, global business services, security and trust, and IT." IT exex Guillermo Diaz has been promoted to CIO.
• Recently-appointed CFO Kelly Kramer maintains her position, and Pankaj Patel is still in charge of Cisco's tech portfolio and ~25K development engineers.
• Cisco adds it "plans to conduct a comprehensive external search to fill a number of leadership roles for key strategic growth areas for the company." Incoming CEO Chuck Robbins has provided a blog post with more details about the appointments.
• CSCO -0.5% premarket to $28.96, following equity futures lower.
• Three days ago: Cisco presidents Lloyd, Moore leaving

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Stock Alerts -Apple (AAPL -0.1%)expands Watch availability, says response surpasses expectations- 6/4/15

Apple expands Watch availability, says response surpasses expectations

• Starting in two weeks, some Apple Watch (AAPL -0.1%) models will be available for sale at retail Apple Stores; Watch sales have been online-only to date. By June 26, the Watch will also be available in 7 more countries - Italy, Mexico, Singapore, Spain, South Korea, Taiwan, and Switzerland - and at "select Apple Authorized resellers." It originally launched in the U.S., China, Hong Kong Japan, the U.K., France, Germany, and Canada.
• Operations SVP Jeff Williams: "The response to Apple Watch has surpassed our expectations in every way ... We're also making great progress with the backlog of Apple Watch orders ... All orders placed through May, with the sole exception of Apple Watch 42 mm Space Black Stainless Steel with Space Black Link Bracelet, will ship to customers within two weeks."
• Many initial Watch buyers saw lengthy shipping times. The WSJ reported in April a component defect at one of two taptic engine suppliers hurt availability, and suggested production could improve in June as taptic supplier Nidec (the one not seeing the defect) ramps production.
• Apple still hasn't provided formal sales figures for the Watch. Research firm Slice has estimated U.S. sales totaled nearly 2.5M through May 18.

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Stock Alerts -CNBC: Alibaba (NYSE:BABA) Snapchat raising $650M at $16B valuation- 5/29/15

CNBC: Snapchat raising $650M at $16B valuation

• Three days after CEO Evan Spiegel stated the company plans to eventually go public, CNBC reports Snapchat plans to raise another $650M in private funding. New investors are said to include Alibaba (NYSE:BABA), Fidelity, York Capital, and Glade Brook Capital.
• Bloomberg reported in March Alibaba is investing $200M in the ephemeral messaging platform at a $15B valuation - sharply above the ~$10B valuation Snapchat received just a couple months earlier.
• Snapchat reportedly had 100M monthly active users as of last summer, and has begun monetizing its platform via ads. Spiegel also wants other revenue streams - other mobile messaging platforms such as WeChat and Line derive revenue from games, stickers, and payments/e-commerce. A video-publishing platform called Discover (supported by ESPN, CNN, and Vice) was launched in January.
• Snapchat might be looking to strike while the iron is hot: While making his IPO comments, Spiegel predicted a tech investing "correction" would eventually happen, and that the current investment climate was fueled in part by low interest rates.

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Stock Alerts -Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) seeks creditor protection for more Canadian iron ore assets- 5/21/15

Cliffs Natural seeks creditor protection for more Canadian iron ore assets

• Cliffs Natural Resources (NYSE:CLF) says it is seeking court protection from creditors of its Wabush iron ore mine and related assets in eastern Canada, after it sought similar protection earlier this year for its Bloom Lake mine and other Canadian iron ore assets.
• CLF says in an SEC filing that a "more comprehensive restructuring and sale process" will result if it was able to include the Wabush group under the same creditor protection and allow a more "streamlined exit" from eastern Canada.
• CLF idled its Wabush operations in Newfoundland and Labrador in Q1 2014 as it sought to cut costs.

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Stock Alerts -Skyworks (SWKS +2.1%), Avago (AVGO +5.1%) rally as Qorvo (QRVO +9%) beats estimates, gets upgraded- 5/7/15

Skyworks, Avago rally as Qorvo beats estimates, gets upgraded

• Just as Qorvo (QRVO +9%) and Avago (AVGO +5.1%) rallied in response to Skyworks' (SWKS +2.1%) beat-and-raise FQ2 report last week, Skyworks and Avago are rallying today after Qorvo beat FQ4 estimates with the help of strong iPhone 6-related sales, and offered above-consensus FQ1 guidance.
• Needham's Quinn Bolton has upgraded Qorvo to Buy, and set an $88 target. Bolton: "Management expects continued robust revenue growth in C2H15 as it has high visibility into the major Tier 1 OEM platform launches later this year. Additionally, QRVO expects continued 4G adoption in the emerging markets to drive strong growth in F1Q16 and C2H15, echoing recent peer commentary."
• He also notes Qorvo now expects to exceed prior RF Micro/TriQuint merger synergy targets, and that its 2H15 gross margin and op. margin could respectively top targets of 50% and 30%. "We believe QRVO's valuation multiple has yet to reflect the greater than expected synergies, revenue growth and operating leverage."
• Qorvo is now aiming for more than $150M/year in synergies by the end of 2016. Major FQ4 design wins included a diversity switch module for a flagship Android phone set to launch in 2H15, and power amplifier wins for major base station and an 802.11ac Wi-Fi chipset. The company asserts the merger is helping it develop integrated RF front-end solutions combining amplifiers, filters, and diversity modules.

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Stock Alerts -BRCM, STM, ADI, IDTI, SNDK, MU land Apple Watch design wins- 5/3/15

BRCM, STM, ADI, IDTI, SNDK, MU land Apple Watch design wins

• iPhone/iPad combo chip supplier Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) is providing a Wi-Fi/Bluetooth/NFC/FM radio combo chip for the Apple Watch (NASDAQ:AAPL), according to an ABI Research teardown of the Watch's S1 chip module. As expected, NXP supplies a complementary NFC controller.
• The teardown also uncovered a 6-axis STMicroelectronics (NYSE:STM) motion sensor (accelerometer/gyproscope). There has been some debate about whether InvenSense (NYSE:INVN) will be a motion sensor supplier for the Watch, as it is for the iPhone 6.
• Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI) supplies a touch controller IC. Barclays reported in March ADI had scored multiple design wins to enable Apple's Force Touch pressure-based response feature (supported by the Watch) on future iPhones/iPads.
• IDT (NASDAQ:IDTI) supplies a wireless charging IC. The design win comes after Samsung opted to use a Texas Instruments charging IC within the Galaxy S6; IDC supplies a chip for the S6's charging pad. Dialog Semi (OTC:DLGNF) provides a power management chip.
• SanDisk/Toshiba (NASDAQ:SNDK) supply an 8GB NAND flash chip, and Micron/Elpida (NASDAQ:MU) a 4Gb (512MB) SRAM chip. SRAM typically carries higher ASPs than DRAM for a given amount of capacity (it's also faster).
• In the near-term (and perhaps longer), Watch volumes will likely amount to a small fraction of iPhone volumes - whereas Apple sold 192.7M iPhones in 2014, IDC forecasts 15.9M 2015 Watch shipments, and more bullish estimates are still generally in the ~20M range. However, strong growth is expected over the next several years, and the first-gen Watch serves as a valuable reference win when competing for other smartwatch/wearable designs.

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Stock Alerts -Expedia (EXPE +7.8%) surges to new highs on strong bookings, guidance reiteration- 5/1/15

Expedia surges to new highs on strong bookings, guidance reiteration

• Expedia (EXPE +7.8%) has rallied above $100 after beating Q1 revenue estimates (while missing on EPS) on the back of a 19% Y/Y increase in gross bookings to $14.3B (+25% if not for forex). RBC has upgraded to Outperform.
• Also: Though a strong dollar is now expected to have a 200 bps larger impact on 2015 adjusted  EBITDA growth than previously forecast (it hurt Q1 EPS), Expedia used its CC (transcript) to reiterate guidance for 10%-15% full-year adjusted EBITDA growth excluding its struggling Chinese eLong (LONG -1.6%) unit.
• Q1 adjusted EBITDA was up 25% Y/Y excluding eLong, and down 5% otherwise. eLong had a $33M Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss; its revenue fell 14% Y/Y to $34.2M thanks to a 7% drop in hotel reservation revenue (to RMB190.3M) and a 37% drop in air ticketing revenue (to RMB25.1M). Expedia notes EPS would've been $0.08 higher (nearly matching consensus) if it used a tax rate that assumed eLong's losses remain at Q1 levels or higher for the rest of the year.
• Expedia's core online travel revenue rose 17% Y/Y to $1.17B, and its trivago hotel metasearch unit's revenue rose 43% to $119M. The Egencia business travel unit saw revenue drop 2% to $98M. U.S. revenue (boosted by Travelocity) rose 20% to $768M, and international revenue (hurt by forex) 8% to $605M.
• Hotel revenue rose 14%, with a 32% increase in room nights partly offset by a 14% drop in revenue/night. Air ticket revenue rose 9%; tickets sold rose 18%, and revenue/ticket fell 7%.
• Q1 results, PR (.pdf)

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Stock Alerts -Yelp -21.6%; downgrades arrives as Q1 sales blamed on reorg, brand ads- 4/30/15

Yelp -21.6%; downgrades arrives as Q1 sales blamed on reorg, brand ads

• BofA/Merrill, RBC, Sterne Agee, and Northland have downgraded YELP after the company missed Q1 sales estimates (while beating on EPS) and offered soft Q2/full-year revenue guidance, and several other firms have cut their targets. Shares have tumbled to their lowest levels since mid-2013.
• "[W]e implemented a territory change within our [ad] sales organization at the beginning of January in an effort to increase our reach to more local businesses. But the change had a negative impact on sales productivity," said CFO Rob Krolik on Yelp's Q1 CC (transcript), discussing the company's local ad performance (sales +51% Y/Y to $98.6M). He insists sales productivity has rebounded since the territory change was reversed in early March.
• Krolik adds brand ad revenue (-11% Y/Y to $6.6M) was affected by "industry headwinds related to the shift to programmatic advertising and the industry's desire to have advertising products that are disruptive to the consumer experience," and the Yelp has refused to support "disruptive" ad formats. Other revenue rose 254% to $13.3M, with the Eat24 acquisition contributing $5M.
• Also drawing concern: Yelp's average monthly unique visitors rose only 8% Y/Y to 142M, with a 29% increase in mobile uniques (to 79M) partly offset by a 3% drop in PC uniques (to 80M). International uniques were flat at 31M; Yelp notes Google algorithm changes are still taking a toll.
• Some bright spots: Local ad accounts rose 43% Y/Y to 90.2K, and cumulative reviews rose 36% to 77M. 40% of local ad sales came from ads sold on a cost-per-click (NYSE:CPC) basis, up from 32% in Q4.
• During the Q&A, RBC and MKM both pressed Yelp on its full-year sales guidance, which (though below consensus) implies a pickup in revenue growth from expected Q2 levels. Krolik argued improved sales productivity and a shift towards CPC ads will provide a lift. Cowen asked why Q1 adjusted EBITDA ($16.3M) missed guidance of $19M-$21M; Krolik says lower (high-margin) brand ad sales were to blame.

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Stock Alerts -Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) +15%; 3 upgrades arrive, JPMorgan values AWS at $66B- 4/24/15

Amazon +15%; 3 upgrades arrive, JPMorgan values AWS at $66B

• Janney, JPMorgan, and Raymond James have upgraded Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) after the company beat Q1 estimates on the back of a 24% Y/Y increase in North American segment revenue, guided in-line, and (importantly) reported AWS had a $265M Q1 op. profit on revenue of $1.57B ($680M and $5.16B for the trailing 12 months). At least 7 other firms have hiked their targets. Amazon's market cap is at $181.6B.
• JPMorgan's Doug Anmuth (upgrade to Overweight, $535 target) now values AWS at $66.3B, or 16x estimated 2016 EBITDA. "[W]e think the reported profitability level far exceeded virtually all expectations. CSOI margins of 17% in 1Q15 and 14% in 2014 have been driven by increasing scale and greater utilization, along with additive services beyond core EC2 and S3 [computing and storage] services. When factoring in heavy depreciation, AWS has EBITDA margins of around 50%."
• Janney's Shawn Milne (upgrade to Buy): "AWS segment margins of 16.9% in Q1, 14.2% in FY14 — well ahead of general Street thoughts that AWS was in 'investment mode,' and losing 5-10% (or more)." He does note Amazon's North American retail op. margin fell 2.5% in 2014 from 2.8% in 2013 (thanks largely to the Fire Phone debacle), but adds it rebounded to 3.9% in Q1.
• Raymond James' James Kessler (upgrade to Outperform) focuses on Amazon's total margin improvement. "Non-GAAP operating margin of 3.1% was ~100 bp above our/consensus estimates driven by improved gross margins and modestly lower than expected operating expenses. Amazon also guided 2Q margins above consensus at the high end."
• On SA, Brian Nichols argues AWS would be worth $50B at 45x forward op. income, and thinks the business could be valued at $85B if publicly traded by itself. The Panoramic View: "Facebook and other leading tech companies used to garner a 10x revenue valuation when they were in similar stages of development. I think that the same can be applied to AWS."
• On the CC (transcript), Amazon stated active customer accounts rose by 8M Q/Q to 278M (260M paying customers). Y/Y paid unit growth was steady at 20%, and 3rd-party sellers made up 44% of sales vs. 43% in Q4.
• Prior Amazon earnings coverage

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Stock Alerts -Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM) +2.3% on Intel speculation, bullish coverage - 4/9/15

Broadcom +2.3% on Intel speculation, bullish coverage

• CNBC's David Faber has reported Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has ended talks to acquire FPGA vendor Altera due to a failure to agree on price. That has fueled speculation Intel will make a bid for Broadcom (NASDAQ:BRCM), which competes with Intel in several telecom/networking chip markets and complements the chip giant's offerings in many others.
• Also possibly helping Broadcom: Ladenburg Thalmann has launched coverage with a Buy rating and $51 target.
• With a current $26.3B market cap - a buyout price would likely have to be over $30B - Broadcom would be a big fish to swallow. Q1 results arrive on April 21.

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Stock Alerts -EMC (EMC -1.5%) lower on Pac Crest downgrade; data lake platform launched - 3/27/15

EMC lower on Pac Crest downgrade; data lake platform launched

• Four days after Piper downgraded EMC (EMC -1.5%) and rival NetApp to Neutral due to competitive concerns, Pac Crest has downgraded EMC to Sector Perform, while citing "increasing seasonal, secular and competitive risks."
• Pac Crest reports seeing "weak storage field checks in a seasonally slow first quarter," as well as "an increasing appetite" among customers to consolidate their storage resources. The firm also sees investments in new products limiting near-term earnings growth.
• Pac Crest was more bullish on EMC in January. It originally upgraded the storage giant to Outperform in June 2013, when shares were at a dividend-adjusted $23.66.
• Amidst the downgrades, EMC has launched its Federation Business Data Lake, a soup-to-nuts solution for companies launching big data/analytics projects that rely on data lakes - massive data repositories that holds data in its native formats. The solution combines servers from EMC's VCE unit and scale-out NAS storage from its Isilon unit, as well as VMware's virtualization software and Pivotal's big data software suite, which includes the Greenplum analytics database and a distribution of the popular Hadoop big data framework.
• EMC is also giving customers the option of using the Hadoop distributions of market leaders Hortonworks (HDP +0.7%) and Cloudera. Its solution acts as an alternative to data warehousing offerings from the likes of Informatica (reportedly in buyout talks) and Teradata (TDC -0.6%), which involve more heavily refining and structuring data. Teradata admits lakes can be implemented faster, support more data types, and provide cheap storage, but also argues warehouses are better for querying cleansed, structured, data.

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