- Believing "numerous catalysts" exist for the next 6-9 months, BofA/Merrill (Buy) is holding onto its $95 SolarCity (NASDAQ:SCTY) target (71% above current levels).
- Among the potential catalysts: 1) Clarity on California's solar retail rates and net metering policies. 2) Improved booking/installation mix leading to better retained value. 3) The arrival of 2016 installation guidance (possibly in Q4). 4) The "emergence of a cash flow oriented view of [SolarCity's] operating systems."
- The firm values SolarCity's existing operating business at $40/share. It assigns a $55/share valuation to its solar development ops, which was forecast to deliver 15.4GW of installations from 2018-2024. BofA sees SolarCity ending 2016 with 3.1GW of cumulative leased installations that will respectively produce $355M and $200M in unlevered and levered cash flow.
- Also: Though admitting Arizona's policies are a setback - SolarCity has sued a local utility for placing ~$50/month in surcharges on new solar installations - BofA notes "constructive regulatory frameworks" have emerged elsewhere. SA author Simple Investment Ideas argued yesterday Arizona-like utility charges won't hold up long-term.
- Smaller rival Vivint (VSLR +3.2%) has joined SolarCity in rallying.
Below these are the Solar stocks I am follow on 2015.
Solar Stocks List
Solar Pure Plays:
•SunPower Corporation (Nasdaq: SPWR)
•First Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: FSLR)
•Evergreen Solar (Nasdaq: ESLR)
•SunTech Power Holdings (NYSE: STP)
•Trina Solar (NYSE: TSL)
•Canadian Solar Inc. (Nasdaq: CSIQ)
•JA Solar Holdings (Nasdaq: JASO)
•China Sunergy (Nasdaq: CSUN)
•LDK Solar (NYSE: LDK)
•ReneSola Ltd. (NYSE: SOL)
Smaller companies with Solar exposure:
•Hoku Scientific (Nasdaq: HOKU)
•Daystar Technologies (Nasdaq: DSTI)
•Spire Corporation (Nasdaq: SPIR)
Solar Energy ETFs:
•Market Vectors Solar Energy ETF (KWT)
•Claymore/MAC Global Solar Energy (TAN)
Bigger companies with Solar exposure:
•MEMC Electronics (NYSE: WFR)
•General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE)
•Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA)
•British Petroleum (NYSE: BP)
•Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-B)
•Kyocera (NYSE: KYO)
•Applied Materials (Nasdaq: AMAT)
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