Summer holiday traders returned this week in the sell mode.
Every new high, Tuesday Thursday, was sold within the first hour and a half, or
less, of trading. But the market managed to turn the tide on Friday. For the
week the SPX/DOW were +0.20%, the NDX/NAZ
were +0.15%, and the DJ World index was +0.20%. On the economic front, positive
and negative reports came in about even. On the up tick: ISM
manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, the unemployment
rate, and the trade deficit improved. On the downtick: the ADP,
payrolls, the WLEI, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next
week we get a look at Consumer credit, Retail sales and Business inventories.
Short term support is at SPX 1990 and the 1973 pivot, with
resistance at SPX 2011 and the 2019 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week
overbought.
The short term wave pattern defined above is easily seem in
the above chart. We labeled the recent high with a 5 to indicate that five
waves had completed from SPX 1905. Since we are not completely sure what degree
it was we will leave that labeling for now until the inflection point clears.
Recent corrections, during Jan/Feb and July/Aug, have corrected about 50% of
the previous uptrend. If they were a series of 1-2’s, as the alternate count
suggests, then a 50% pullback of the recent SPX 1905-2011 rally would be quite
normal. Another interesting juncture in this relentless bull market.
Support for the SPX remains at 1990, 1973, 1960 and then
1930 resistance at 211 and then 2019.Best to your trading what sets up to be a
wild week ahead. Best to your trading!
FOREIGN MARKETS
Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.4%.
European markets were all higher for a gain of 2.8%.
The Commodity equity group were mostly higher gaining 1.7%.
The DJ World index is up trending and gained 0.2%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.6% on the week.
Crude has been quite volatile this week, remains in a
downtrend and lost 2.7%.
Gold is still down trending losing 1.6% on the week.
The USD uptrend continues and it gained 1.3% on the week.