The wild and volatile week we expected was nearly all to the
upside. The market started the week unchanged, completed its 1.5 week pullback
on Tuesday, then made new highs on Thursday and Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW
were +1.5%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.3%. Economic
reports for the week were mixed. On the up tick: NY FED,
NAHB, leading indicators, WLEI, monetary base, and weekly jobless claims
improved. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, CPI,
housing starts, building permits and the Philly FED.
Next week we get more reports on Housing, Durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP.
From the early August downtrend low at SPX 1905 we counted
five waves up to SPX 2011. Waves 1 and 2 at 1945 and 1928. Wave 3 subdivided
into five waves: 1964-1942-1995-1985-2005. Wave 4 was a simple decline to SPX
1991. Then wave 5 unfolded in a diagonal triangle: 2006-1995-2009-1998-2011.
From that SPX 1979 low the market rallied quite nicely to
2004 on Wednesday, and then had a series of reversals right after the FED
released their FOMC statement. Since none of these swings actually registered
quantitatively, we are considering them just post-FOMC noise. The market then
gapped up on Thursday and Friday, hitting SPX 2019, and then had its first
quantitative pullback since the low.
Short term support is at SPX 2000 and SPX 1993, with resistance
at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral.
FOREIGN MARKETS
The Asian markets ended the week mixed with a net gain of
0.1%.
The European markets were mostly higher gaining 0.4%.
The Commodity equity group was mostly lower losing 0.9%.
The DJ World index gained 0.3%.
COMMODITIES
Bonds continue to downtrend but ended about even on the
week.
Crude remains in a downtrend losing 0.5% on the week.
Gold is also in a downtrend losing 1.2% on the week.
The USD continues its strong uptrend gaining 0.7% on the
week.