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Sunday, September 21, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis September 22-26, 2014

FOR 9/22 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 2030.24, R2 2024.75, R1 2017.57
Pivot Point 2012.08
Support  S1 2004.90 , S2 1999.41, S3 1992.23

For Weekly 9/22-9/26 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 2067.72, R2 2043.49, R1 2026.94
Pivot Point 2002.71
Support S1 1986.71,  S2 1961.93, S3 1945.38


The wild and volatile week we expected was nearly all to the upside. The market started the week unchanged, completed its 1.5 week pullback on Tuesday, then made new highs on Thursday and Friday. For the week the SPX/DOW were +1.5%, the NDX/NAZ were +0.5%, and the DJ World index rose 0.3%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the up tick: NY FED, NAHB, leading indicators, WLEI, monetary base, and weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: industrial production, capacity utilization, CPI, housing starts, building permits and the Philly FED. Next week we get more reports on Housing, Durable goods orders, and Q2 GDP.

From the early August downtrend low at SPX 1905 we counted five waves up to SPX 2011. Waves 1 and 2 at 1945 and 1928. Wave 3 subdivided into five waves: 1964-1942-1995-1985-2005. Wave 4 was a simple decline to SPX 1991. Then wave 5 unfolded in a diagonal triangle: 2006-1995-2009-1998-2011.

From that SPX 1979 low the market rallied quite nicely to 2004 on Wednesday, and then had a series of reversals right after the FED released their FOMC statement. Since none of these swings actually registered quantitatively, we are considering them just post-FOMC noise. The market then gapped up on Thursday and Friday, hitting SPX 2019, and then had its first quantitative pullback since the low.

Short term support is at SPX 2000 and SPX 1993, with resistance at the 2019 and 2070 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week at neutral.


FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets ended the week mixed with a net gain of 0.1%.
The European markets were mostly higher gaining 0.4%.
The Commodity equity group was mostly lower losing 0.9%.
The DJ World index gained 0.3%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to downtrend but ended about even on the week.
Crude remains in a downtrend losing 0.5% on the week.
Gold is also in a downtrend losing 1.2% on the week.
The USD continues its strong uptrend gaining 0.7% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calendar September 22-26, 2014


Monday: Existing home sales at 10am. Tuesday: the FHFA housing index, then FED governor Powell gives at speech at 9:20am. Wednesday: New home sales. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Friday: Q2 GDP (est. +4.6%) and Consumer sentiment. Would be quite impressed if GDP is actually reported that high. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY

$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPAQ


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