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Saturday, June 7, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis June 9-13, 2014

FOR 6/9 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1958.81, R2 1954.12, R1 1951.78
Pivot Point 1947.09
Support  S1 1844.75,  S2 1840.06, S3 1837.72

For Weekly 6/9-6/13 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1994.05, R2 1971.74, R1 1960.59
Pivot Point 1938.28
Support S1 1927.13, S2 1904.82, S3 1893.67


Another good week for USA stock market. The third week in a row the market has gained about 1%. The market displayed some choppiness early in the week, dealing with the OEW 1929 pivot. But then cleared it on Thursday, as it made new all time highs every day again except Tuesday. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.25%, the NDX/NAZ gained 1.75% and the DJ World index gained 1.35%. Economic reports for the week were mixed. On the up tick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, factory orders, auto sales and consumer credit. On the downtick: the ADP, monthly payrolls, investor sentiment, the M1-multiplier, the WLEI, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade balance worsened. Next week we get reports on Retail sales, Export/Import prices and the PPI.

Short term support is at the 1929 and 1901 pivots, with resistance at the 1956 and 1973 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely overbought. The short term OEW charts are positive with the reversal level now SPX 1943.

As this market continues to make new highs nearly every day it is easy to get carried away with the rising tide. The easy part of this uptrend, if one could call it that, was the past three weeks. Three weeks ago, we knew the NAZ had to rally about 7% to near its bull market highs. Now it is about 1% away from that objective. In the meantime the SPX has already entered the range of our uptrend targeted 1956 pivot. Quite a run, yes. But this uptrend is extremely overbought on both the hourly and daily time frames. And, the weekly time frame has hit quite overbought.

Overbought conditions like this usually lead, at some point, to a significant pullback. We just reviewed the Fibonacci relationships of the waves. We took into account not only the Micro, Minute and Minor waves of this uptrend. But the Intermediate waves of Major wave 5, the Major waves of Primary III, and compared Primary III to Primary I as well. We arrived at two important price clusters just ahead: SPX 1954-1958 and SPX 1966-1973. Both of these clusters fit quite nicely with the 1956 and 1973 pivots.

Support for the SPX remains at 1930, 1905, 1890 and then 1870 resistance at 1956 and then 1973.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead. It looks like we will reach an inflection point in the month of June. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.0%.
The European markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 2.1%.
The Commodity equity group were all higher for a net gain of 3.3%.
The DJ World index continues it uptrend gaining 1.35%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds appear to be down trending and lost 0.8% on the week.
Crude continues to downtrend and lost 0.1% on the week.
Gold remains in a downtrend but gained 0.2% on the week.
The USD is still uptrending but finished flat on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calendar June 9-13, 2014


Tuesday: Wholesale inventories. Wednesday: the Treasury deficit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Retail sales, Export/Import prices and Business inventories. Friday: the PPI and Consumer sentiment. The FED has one activity scheduled. Monday at 12:45 FED governor Tarullo gives a speech. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY

$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPAQ


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