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Saturday, May 3, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis May 5-9, 2014

FOR 5/5 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1901.64, R2 1896.48, R1 1888.81
Pivot Point 1883.65
Support  S1 1875.98,  S2 1870.82, S3 1863.15

For Weekly 5/2-5/9 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1938.83, R2 1915.08, R1 1898.11
Pivot Point 1874.36
Support S1 1857.39, S2 1833.64, S3 1816.67

After a good rally last week the USA market, Thanks to the two gap up openings early in the week, and no surprises from the FED or Q1 GDP. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.95%, the NDX/NAZ were +1.35%, and the DJ World index was +1.10%. Economic reports for the week remained positive. On the up tick: pending homes sales, ADP, Chicago PMI, personal income/spending, PCE, ISM manufacturing, construction spending, auto sales, Payrolls, factory orders, and the WLEI. On the downtick: Case-Shiller, Q1 GDP, the monetary base, and weekly jobless claims rose. Next week we get reports on ISM services and Consumer credit, plus Congressional testimony from FED chair Yellen on Wednesday.

Short term support is at the 1869 and 1841 pivots, with resistance at the 1901 and 1929 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week heading lower after a negative divergence. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1879.

From the recent potential downtrend low at SPX 1814 we counted five waves up to 1885, and labeled that Minor wave 1. Then after a complex double three pullback to SPX 1851, which we labeled Minor 2, the market has rallied to a higher high at SPX 1891. This recent rally also looks like five waves up, but of a smaller degree (Minute wave). We counted the advance from SPX 1851: 1880-1871-1889-1880-1891.

After that high, around 10:30 Friday, the market pulled back to SPX 1879. Notice it found support around the 4th wave (1880). Also note, the shortest wave during this last rally was the fifth wave. When this occurs sometimes the market pulls back to the previous second wave (1871). So a continued pullback to the OEW 1869 pivot would not be anything unusual. For now, we are labeling the SPX 1891 high as Minute wave one of Minor 3, and will wait to see where Minute wave two bottoms. Until SPX 1891 is exceeded we can not be certain that Minute two has ended.

Support for the SPX remains at 1868, 1850, 1841 and then 1800 resistance at 1891 and then 1929.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead.

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week for a new loss of 0.60%.
The European markets were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.30%.
The Commodity equity group were mostly higher for a net gain of 1.70%.
The DJ World index remains in an uptrend and gained 1.10% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds have confirmed an uptrend gaining 0.5% on the week.
Crude remains in a downtrend losing 0.9% on the week.
Gold is trying to establish an uptrend but lost 0.1% on the week.
The USD remains in a downtrend losing 0.3% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calendar May 5-9, 2014


Monday: ISM services at 10am. Tuesday: the Trade deficit. Wednesday: Consumer credit. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims. Friday: Wholesale inventories. The FED has a busy week. Tuesday: a speech from FED governor Stein in the evening. Wednesday: Congressional testimony from FED chair Yellen. Thursday: a speech from FED governor Tarullo. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY

$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPQ


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