SPX Technical Analysis April 7-11 2014

FOR 4/7 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1921.15, R2 1909.21, R1 1887.21
Pivot Point 1875.21
Support  S1 1853.15,  S2 1841.21, S3 1819.15

For Weekly 4/7-4/11 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1926.64, R2 1911.96, R1 1885.52
Pivot Point 1873.52
Support S1 1850.40, S2 1836.72, S3 1812.28

The USA stock market was interesting finish to quite a positive week. The week started off by gaping up Monday/Tuesday and hitting a record high. Wednesday/Thursday also produced record highs, and the DOW made an all time high too. The NDX/NAZ, however, came under selling pressure at the open on Thursday, and remained under selling pressure into Friday’s close. The SPX/DOW gaped up to new highs early Friday, but then gave way ending the week with moderate gains. For the week the SPX/DOW were +0.5%, the NDX/NAZ were -0.8%, and the DJ World index rose 1.0%. Economic reports for the week were again mainly to the upside. On the uptick: ISM manufacturing/services, construction spending, auto sales, the ADP, factory orders, Payrolls, the WLEI and Investor sentiment rose. On the down tick: Chicago PMI and the monetary base, plus weekly jobless claims and the trade deficit rose. Next week we get the FOMC minutes, Export/Import prices and the PPI.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 and 1901 pivots. Short term momentum ended the week extremely oversold. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level now SPX 1879.

We have been counting this uptrend, since early February at SPX 1738, as Intermediate wave iii. Thus far it has completed Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 1884 and 1842 respectively. The recent rally to all time highs at SPX 1897 should be Minute one of Minor wave 3. And Friday’s decline to SPX 1863 should be all, or most, of Minute wave ii.

We counted five waves up from SPX 1842 to 1897: 1867-1853-1894-1883-1897. Since the fifth wave was the shortest in the structure, and it ended in a diagonal triangle on the one minute chart. It was not too surprising to see Fridays pullback go below the high of the first wave (1867). Pullbacks are usually fairly steep when fifth waves are short. On Friday the SPX dropped from the OEW 1901 pivot range (1894-1908) to the OEW 1869 pivot range (1862-1876) which is currently creating support.

With the short term momentum extremely oversold the market should experience at least a bounce quite soon. The down trending NDX/NAZ are also displaying a positive RSI/MACD divergence at Friday’s low on their hourly and daily charts. In the past this has usually led to an uptrend. While Friday’s selloff looked quite nasty, it may be quite positive longer term. However, should the SPX continue to decline and break below the OEW 1841 pivot range (1834-1848) it will likely be in a downtrend as well. Next week we will be watching the NDX/NAZ for signs of a reversal, plus the 1869 and 1841 pivots.

Support for the SPX remains at 1857, 1850, 1830 and then 1800, resistance at 1869 and then 1884.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead. 

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.3%.

The European markets were also mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.6%.

The Commodity equity group were all higher on the week for a net gain of 2.5%.

The DJ World index is still up trending and gained 1.0% on the week.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend and lost 0.2% on the week.

Crude remains in an uptrend but lost 0.6% on the week.

Gold is also in a downtrend but gained 0.6% on the week.

The USD is uptrending again and gained 0.2% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calender April 7-11, 2014

Monday: Consumer credit at 3pm. Wednesday: Wholesale inventories and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, Export/Import prices, and the Budget deficit. Friday: the PPI and Consumer sentiment. As for the FED. Tuesday: Congressional testimony from General counsel Alvarez, and a FED board meeting right after the close. Wednesday: a speech from FED governor Tarullo in the evening. Sunday afternoon: a speech from FED governor Stein. Busy week for the FED and likely for the markets too. Enjoy your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts

$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY
$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPQ

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