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Saturday, March 15, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis March 17-21, 2014

FOR 3/17 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1862.27, R2 1857.42, R1 1849.27
Pivot Point 1844.42
Support  S1 1836.27,  S2 1831.42, S3 1823.27

For Weekly 3/17-3/121 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1911.91, R2 1897.13, R1 1869.13
Pivot Point 1854.35
Support S1 1826.35, S2 1811.57, S3 1883.57


The USA stock market last week started off well enough with a rally to within two points of the SPX 1884 all time high by Tuesday. Then weakening upside momentum and the continuous slide in the NAZ (down 6 of the last 7 days) helped take the market down for the rest of the week. For the week the SPX/DOW lost 2.20%, the NDX/NAZ lost 2.05%, and the DJ World index lost 2.40%. Economic reports for the week were good: seven positive to three negative. On the uptick: wholesale/business inventories, retail sales, export prices, the M1-multiplier, the WLEI, and weekly jobless claims were lower. On the downtick: import prices, the PPI and consumer sentiment. Next week is FOMC week: with Industrial production, housing and options expiration. Could be a wild one.

Short term support is at the 1841 and 1828 pivots, with resistance at the 1869 pivot and SPX 1884. Short term momentum ended the week with a positive divergence. The short term OEW charts are negative with the reversal level now SPX 1858.

The 60m chart displays a somewhat choppy pattern, between SPX 1825 and 1884, after the initial two week surge of this uptrend. The triangular Minute wave iv is an acceptable pattern, but it can also be counted as corrective. Which would make the entire uptrend corrective, like some sort of B wave. For now, the 1841 pivot range is providing support. Should this give way and the SPX enter the 1828 pivot range, then break through that, the B wave uptrend scenario would definitely gain in probability. This week should be the tell.

Support for the SPX remains at 1837, 1828, 1820 and then 1800, resistance at 1852 and then 1883.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead. 

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly lower on the week losing 2.0%.
The European markets were all lower losing 2.6%.
The Commodity equity group were all lower as well losing 3.9%.
The DJ World index is still uptrending but lost 2.4%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds remain in a downtrend losing 0.6%.
Crude appears to be down trending losing 3.6%.
Gold shrugged off the negative divergence and resumed its uptrend gaining 3.2%.
The USD remains in a downtrend and lost 0.6% on the week.

NEXT WEEK

Earning Calender March 17-21, 2014

Monday: the NY FED at 8:30, Capacity utilization at 9:15, then the NAHB housing index at 10am. Tuesday: Housing starts, Building permits and the CPI. Wednesday: the Current account deficit and the FOMC ends it meeting. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims, existing Home sales, the Philly FED and Leading indicators. Friday: Options expiration. There will be a press conference on Wednesday at 2:30 with FED chair Yellen. On Friday: FED governor Stein gives a speech after the market close. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY

$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPQ


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