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Saturday, February 22, 2014

SPX Technical Analysis February 24-28, 2014

FOR 2/24 SPX resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1853.58, R2 1849.85, R1 1843.05
Pivot Point 1839.32
Support  S1 1832.52,  S2 1828.79, S3 1821.99

For Weekly 2/24-2/28 SPX weekly resistance, pivot & support
Resistance R3 1873.89, R2 1861.69, R1 1848.97
Pivot Point 1836.77
Support S1 1824.09, S2 1811.88, S3 1799.13


Even though it was a holiday shortened week the market finished a rally on Wednesday at SPX 1848, dipped to 1825 by Thursday, then started another rally. For the week the SPX/DOW were -0.20%, the NDX/NAZ were mixed, and the DJ World index was +0.60%. Economic reports came in slightly lower for the third week in a row. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, leading indicators, the monetary base, plus weekly jobless claims improved. On the downtick: the NY/Philly FED, the NAHB index, housing starts, building permits, existing home sales and the WLEI. Next week we get Q4 GDP, Durable goods orders and more Housing reports.

Short term support is at the 1828 pivot and SPX 1814, with resistance at the 1841 pivot and SPX 1851. Short term momentum declined to slightly oversold, after Friday’s oversold condition. The short term OEW charts remain positive with the reversal level now SPX 1835.

Thus far, from the SPX 1738 low, the market has impulsed higher: five waves up to SPX 1848: 1788-1777-1827-1809-1848. We then had a pullback this week to SPX 1825, and now a rally to 1846 and pullback to 1836. There are a few ways of counting this advance and this is the reason we have not posted any labels on it.

For the Intermediate wave count the 110 point rally, 1738-1848, as Minor 1. Then the pullback to 1825 as all/or part of Minor 2. Since the pullback was much shorter than expected for a Minor 2, the entire 110 point rally could also have been just Minute one of Minor 1. For the Minor wave B scenario. We could count the 110 point rally as wave a of an ongoing Minor B zigzag, and the decline to 1825 as wave b. This would make the current rally from that low wave c. As you can see there are a multitude of potential short term counts.

Support for the SPX remains at 1820, 1800, 1780 and then 1750, resistance at 1841 and then 1851.Best to your trading what sets up to be a wild week ahead. Best to your trading!

FOREIGN MARKETS

The Asian markets were mostly higher on the week for a net gain of 1.8%.
The European markets were quite mixed and only gained 0.1%.
The Commodity equity group was mostly lower losing 1.2%.
The DJ World index gained 0.6%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds continue to uptrend but lost 0.1%.
Crude continues its uptrend and gained 1.8%.
Gold is also uptrending gaining 0.4%.
The USD remains in a downtrend but gained 0.2%.

NEXT WEEK

 
Tuesday: Case-Shiller, the FHFA index and Consumer confidence. Wednesday: New home sales. Thursday: weekly Jobless claims and Durable goods orders. Friday: Q4 GDP (est. +2.4%), the Chicago PMI, Consumer sentiment and Pending home sales. FED officials make three public appearances next week. Tuesday: Fed governor Tarullo gives a speech at 10am. Thursday: FED chair Yellen testifies before the Senate at 10am. Friday: FED governor Stein is in a panel discussion, also at 10am. Best to your weekend and week!

Take a look some market indicator charts- Click all charts
$SPX - 60 min
SPX DAILY CHARTS
QUICK LOOK ALL MAJOR INDEX WEEKLY

$SPX with component chart 
$VIX
$CPC daily
QQQQ Daily 
COMPQ


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